Global vulnerability of crop yields to climate change

Using a newly-available panel dataset of gridded annual crop yields in conjunction with dynamic econometric model that distinguishes between farmers' short-run and long-run responses to weather shocks accounts for adaptation, we investigate the risk global from climate warming. Over broad spatial domains observe only slight moderation impacts by adjustments. In absence additional margins adaptation beyond those pursued historically, projections constructed using an ensemble 21 simulations suggest change could reduce 3–12% mid-century 11–25% century's end, under vigorous warming scenario.